ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 311934 
SPC MCD 311934 
MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-312130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MARYLAND...NORTHERN/CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 311934Z - 312130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  A
WATCH IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...STRONG INSOLATION HAS LED TO DESTABILIZATION AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG /PER MESOANALYSIS/ AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KTS /PER LOCAL VWPS/...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE AS THEY MOVE
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH PRECIPITATION LOADING PROCESSES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL NATURE OF
THE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY OF A WATCH.

..JIRAK/KERR.. 07/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   38027898 39047800 39697732 39567674 39097659 38637680
            38047721 37337784 36537847 36187892 35728002 35858077
            36188101 38027898 

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