MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1457
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MARYLAND...NORTHERN/CENTRAL
   VIRGINIA...NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 311934Z - 312130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  A
   WATCH IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG INSOLATION HAS LED TO DESTABILIZATION AND
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   APPROACHING 1500 J/KG /PER MESOANALYSIS/ AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES
   AROUND 30 KTS /PER LOCAL VWPS/...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE AS THEY MOVE
   OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH PRECIPITATION LOADING PROCESSES DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL NATURE OF
   THE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY OF A WATCH.

   ..JIRAK/KERR.. 07/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   38027898 39047800 39697732 39567674 39097659 38637680
               38047721 37337784 36537847 36187892 35728002 35858077
               36188101 38027898