ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 310553 SPC MCD 310553 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-310730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SD...CENTRAL NEB...NORTHERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426... VALID 310553Z - 310730Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND THREAT WITH A QLCS SHOULD GENERALLY EVOLVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEB. PORTIONS OF WW 426 SHOULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT...WITH A NEW WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY SLOW-MOVING ELEVATED CLUSTERS NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER...WITH WW ISSUANCE UNLIKELY. WW AREA IN BETWEEN THESE REGIONS MAY HAVE A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. DISCUSSION...FORWARD PROPAGATION OF A SOUTH-CENTRAL SD/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB QLCS IS NEAR 35 KTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. 04Z HRRR-PARALLEL RUN SUGGESTS THIS QLCS WILL CONTINUE ON A SIMILAR TRACK. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE LACK OF SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTWARD DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION LIKELY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN PROBABLE UNTIL THE QLCS SHIFTS EAST OF THIS PLUME IN SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHEAST NEB. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER AREA...A SLOW-MOVING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS IS INCREASING WITH A RECENT REPORT OF GOLF-BALL SIZE HAIL. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER PER MODIFIED 00Z LBF RAOB WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN UPDRAFTS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE CLUSTER. OVERALL THREAT IS LIKELY GREATEST IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH THE PREDOMINANT CLUSTER MODE LIKELY YIELDING MORE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WITH TIME. ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 07/31/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ICT...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR... GLD... LAT...LON 43590062 43599950 43419847 43109806 42599807 42149831 41709911 40629924 40039858 39459834 39069888 38890024 39120059 39620070 40870065 41650094 42240147 42940074 43590062 NNNN