MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1448
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WYOMING...SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 302032Z - 302300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WHILE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
   INITIATION AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS IS INCREASING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
   THE AREA WITH AN AXIS OF 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXTENDING NWWD INTO
   EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING /PER MESONALYSIS/.  CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO
   INITIATE OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...LARAMIE MOUNTAINS...AND BLACK
   HILLS TO THIS POINT LIKELY OWING TO MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
   TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA.  NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.  GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT /RESULTING IN 30-40 KTS OF
   EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/...THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION
   SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  EVENTUALLY...THE STORMS MAY UNDERGO
   UPSCALE GROWTH AS THE LLJ INCREASES INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ..JIRAK/KERR.. 07/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43710518 44010500 44410470 44750437 45020365 44590255
               44130167 43740110 43260085 42660127 42260214 42050266
               41740351 41660413 41700476 41940512 42350543 43710518