ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 302006 
SPC MCD 302006 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-302130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL AR...SERN OK...FAR NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 302006Z - 302130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN OK/FAR
NERN TX INTO WRN AND CNTRL AR. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE INCREASED WITHIN THE PAST 1-2
HRS ACROSS SERN OK INTO W-CNTRL AR...WHILE STRONG CONVECTION HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS NRN AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG-LIVED
CLUSTER ORIGINATING IN NRN OK. STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED WITHIN A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS...WITH SFC OBS SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S...AND GPS-BASED PW VALUES ESTIMATED AT 1.8-2 INCHES. THIS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
ESTIMATED AT 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. WNWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
OF 15-20 KT...POSITIONED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF RELATIVELY STRONGER
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY...IS RESULTING IN
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH INITIATION DRIVEN BY
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS. PRIMARY THREAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DMGG
WINDS...WITH DOWNBURST POTENTIAL ENHANCED BY SUBSTANTIAL WATER
LOADING WITHIN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY ALSO
BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES. GIVEN THE WEAKLY
ORGANIZED NATURE OF CONVECTION...AND LIKELY ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
DMGG WIND THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..ROGERS/KERR.. 07/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34809183 34009227 33119344 33609514 34579555 35309446
            36199345 36329221 35879133 34809183 

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