ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 301611 
SPC MCD 301611 
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-301715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN VA...MD...SERN PA...NJ...DE...ERN WV
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 301611Z - 301715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE HEATED INTO THE MID-80S F AMIDST A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...WITH
PW VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE PER SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS NEBULOUS...WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A WEAK FRONT WAS ALSO LIFTING NWD
ACROSS CNTRL PA AND NRN NJ. 

A LONG-LIVED AREA OF TSTMS ACROSS SERN VA HAS SHOWED SIGNS OF
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST HR AS STRONG HEATING IS
OCCURRING. TSTMS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS NEWD INTO PARTS OF ERN PA AND NJ S OF THE
FRONT...WHERE A RESERVOIR OF MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG IS PRESENT. MODERATE WLY FLOW ATOP WEAK SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
YIELDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR /25-35 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER/ FOR MARGINAL
STORM ORGANIZATION. DOWNDRAFTS ENHANCED VIA WATER LOADING PROCESSES
MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BOTH THE COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND THREAT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR A WATCH.

..ROGERS/KERR.. 07/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   40257404 39257519 37787633 37027646 36667735 36817822
            37427850 37977896 38977865 39547788 40907565 40807432
            40257404 

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