MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0710 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION INTO ADJACENT NERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 300010Z - 300145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS SPREADING ESEWD OUT OF NERN NM MAY CONTINUE TO GROW
   UPSCALE AND POSE ADDITIONAL/ISOLATED SEVERE RISK THIS EVENING.  WW
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT ISOLATED CELLS OVER THE
   NERN NM VICINITY HAVE BEGUN TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A SEMI-ORGANIZED
   BAND...SPREADING ESEWD INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE REGION. 
   DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS FEATURES MODERATE INSTABILITY /AROUND 2000 J/KG
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/...AND SELY SURFACE INFLOW
   INTO THE STORMS.  WITH A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET PROGGED TO DEVELOP THIS
   EVENING...ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
   FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
   MAINTENANCE OF STORMS WELL INTO THE EVENING.

   WITH THAT SAID...MID-LEVEL FLOW -- WHILE DIFFLUENT -- REMAINS WEAK
   ACROSS THIS REGION.  THUS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS ONLY MARGINALLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...WHICH GENERALLY
   SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED/LOCAL HAIL/WIND RISK.  ONE CAVEAT THAT IS
   EVIDENT WOULD BE IF STORMS COULD DEVELOP A MORE WELL-ORGANIZED
   MESOSCALE COLD POOL...WITH STORMS THEN GROWING UPSCALE INTO A
   WELL-ORGANIZED LINE.  SHOULD THIS MESOSCALE/COLD-POOL-INDUCED
   ORGANIZATION INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS -- THUS SUPPORTING A
   MORE SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- A WW COULD BECOME
   NECESSARY.

   ..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 07/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34140373 34900411 35910342 36720233 36740148 36280073
               35740033 34430034 33900094 33970275 34140373