ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 292045 COR SPC MCD 292045 COR OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-292245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...FAR NERN NM...FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE...FAR NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 292045Z - 292245Z CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS SUPPORTIVE OF SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SVR COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE CO AND ADJACENT NE NM HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING...MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE ALLOWED THE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S. RESULTING AIRMASS IS AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT CU HAS ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE FROM TAD SWD TO 40 WNW TCC...WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED ALONG A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR TAD. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION RESULTING FROM CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING AS WELL AS CONTINUED CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION BOTH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS OVER THE SLY/SELY SURFACE WINDS AND THE RESULTING VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS. STRONG COLD POOLS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH EXIST IF STORM PROXIMITY IS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR COLD POOL AMALGAMATION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM COVERAGE...BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED AND WW MAY BE EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ..MOSIER/KERR.. 07/29/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37270519 37590532 38280520 38440421 37890314 36930230 35880287 35930412 36580465 37270519 NNNN