ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 282058 
SPC MCD 282058 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-282300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS...NERN
NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 282058Z - 282300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME SVR RISK EVOLVING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR
TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SFC TROUGH ARCHING WSWWD/WWD IN THAT AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD/SWD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AT LEAST
ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY EVOLVING CONVECTIVE 
CLUSTERS -- AIDED BY LARGE DCAPE /AROUND 1500-1700 J PER KG/. WEAK
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LIMITS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SVR
COVERAGE...THOUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36760385 36870309 36990181 37270114 37030078 36210100
            35590174 35460324 35890407 36760385 

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