ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 281958 SPC MCD 281958 COZ000-282200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 281958Z - 282200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THEN MOVE EWD WITH THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING CU ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS OVER SW NEB EXTENDING FROM THE MCS WWD TO JUST S OF FTG AND THEN NWWD TO BDU. THIS BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW ARE CURRENTLY COOL AND LESS UNSTABLE SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SOON MAY HAVE DIFFICULTLY PERSISTING...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED HEATING WITHIN THE CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE OUTFLOW MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION DURING LATE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS TO THE S OF THE OUTFLOW IS WARM -- TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S -- AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT THEN TAKING THESE STORMS INTO THE WARM AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ERN CO PLAINS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE STRONG COLD POOLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH EXISTS. HOWEVER...ANY UPSCALE GROWTH WILL BE TIED TO STORM COVERAGE/PROXIMITY AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MCS DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY HIGH. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE FAVORED WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A TRANSITION TO MAINLY STRONG WINDS IF ANY UPSCALE GROWTH IS REALIZED. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO COVER THE ANTICIPATED SVR POTENTIAL. ..MOSIER/DIAL.. 07/28/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39640532 40900546 40940364 40400282 39380238 38270230 37260280 37110420 37340499 39640532 NNNN