ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 281859 
SPC MCD 281859 
KSZ000-NEZ000-282100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SW/S-CNTRL NEB...N-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 281859Z - 282100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONGOING MCS ACROSS SW NEB IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT
CONTINUES SEWD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED TO COVER THE RESULTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN ARCING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY -- ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS NW KS
-- FROM JUST NE OF LAA TO N OF GCK TO JUST W OF HLC. AIRMASS W OF
THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS LARGELY STABLE WHILE THE AIRMASS E HAS HEATED
INTO THE MID 80S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. AS A RESULT...A
CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY EXISTS E OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
S-CNTRL NEB SEWD INTO CNTRL KS WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING
MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG.  ONGOING MCS ACROSS SW NEB IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEWD WITH THE ERN PORTION OF THE MCS
INTERACTING WITH THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 

THIS CORRIDOR IS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE BETTER FLOW ALOFT BUT
RECENT UEX AND GLD VADS BOTH SAMPLED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-45
KT. THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THE ONGOING MCS TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES SEWD WITH INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS THREAT
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..MOSIER/DIAL.. 07/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39880083 40330130 40770046 40529957 39579802 39009793
            38609834 38589940 39310018 39880083 

NNNN