ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 281833 
SPC MCD 281833 
NCZ000-282100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 281833Z - 282100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...STRONG SFC HEATING AMIDST VERY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S IS
SUPPORTING STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. TSTM COVERAGE IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE TO SOME EXTENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON --
DEVELOPING ALONG MODEST HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES IN THE LOW-MLCINH ENVIRONMENT. WITH MLCAPE AROUND
2000-3000 J/KG...INTENSE UPDRAFT MASS FLUXES ARE ANTICIPATED...
THOUGH WEAK DEEP SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...WATER-LOADING PROCESSES WILL BE ENHANCED
GIVEN PW AROUND 2 INCHES...AND STRONG WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR. THE DEARTH OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AND PAUCITY OF DEEP SHEAR...SHOULD LIMIT SVR
POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON   35197664 35967717 36467684 36507605 36277578 35887580
            35347597 35197664 

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