MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1414
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1043 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB PANHANDLE...FAR NE CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281543Z - 281715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT
   THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
   MARGINALLY SEVERE AS IT CONTINUES SEWD. AN ADDITIONAL...HIGHER
   COVERAGE SVR THREAT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN THE
   STRENGTH OF THE TSTM MOVING FROM SIOUX COUNTY INTO SCOTTS BLUFF
   COUNTY IN THE NEB PANHANDLE. THIS TSTM IS ON THE WRN EDGE OF A
   CLUSTER ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE WHICH HAS
   PERSISTED JUST N OF A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT
   STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE STORM ENCOUNTERING SOMEWHAT
   BETTER VERTICAL SHEAR. ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS STORM /AND ITS
   ASSOCIATED CLUSTER/ HAS BEEN MODIFIED BY THE TSTMS /AND ATTENDANT
   OUTFLOW/ WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING. AS A
   RESULT...THE AIRMASS IS MOIST BUT COOL...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
   SOMEWHAT HOSTILE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO UNTIL IT IS MODIFIED SUFFICIENTLY BY DIURNAL HEATING. AS
   SUCH...EXPECTATION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IS FOR THIS ACTIVITY
   LARGELY REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE AS IT CONTINUES SEWD.
   DESTABILIZATION AND MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESULTING HIGHER COVERAGE OF SVR POTENTIAL.

   ..MOSIER/DIAL.. 07/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40970368 41530385 42000377 42180308 41540162 40450140
               40090282 40970368