ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 271935 SPC MCD 271935 MTZ000-272200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1408 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 271935Z - 272200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DISCUSSION...WITH STRONG SFC HEATING OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL/WRN/SRN MT...CUMULUS GROWTH AND ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ARE UNDERWAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR HAS BEEN ACROSS THE CNTRL MT MOUNTAINS SE OF GREAT FALLS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WWD TOWARD THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. A FEW ISOLATED SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS -- POSSIBLE WEAK SUPERCELLS -- ARE FORECAST TO EVOLVE FROM THE ONGOING ACTIVITY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MT HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EVENING. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 50S AMIDST PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION ARE SUPPORTING AROUND 500-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AMIDST 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. GIVEN THIS BUOYANCY/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE...ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ASCENT RELATED TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT PRESENTLY...AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A LOCALIZED CLUSTER OF GREATER SVR COVERAGE COULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE IN CNTRL/SRN MT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE BASED ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS...AND LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY...CONFIDENCE IN GREATER SVR COVERAGE IS NOT PRESENTLY SUFFICIENT FOR WW ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 45150789 45761005 46341183 47491159 47470969 47140793 46380660 45530676 45180705 45150789 NNNN