MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1405
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MN...W-CNTRL WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271617Z - 271815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR SVR COVERAGE TO BE TOO LOW TO
   MERIT A WATCH BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED. THIS
   AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MARGINAL RISK IN THE UPCOMING 1630Z DAY 1
   CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW JUST SEWD OF AIT
   WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SWWD TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR HCD AND THEN FURTHER
   SWWD INTO NWRN IA. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY /DEPICTED WELL BY
   THE 68 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM/ EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW NEAR HCD. TSTM
   IN MEEKER AND MCLEOD COUNTIES IS VERY NEAR THIS TRIPLE POINT AND HAS
   RECENTLY SHOWN INTENSIFICATION. 

   DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS MOIST -- DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
   -- BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR --6.5 DEG C PER KM BETWEEN 700
   AND 500 MB ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING -- AND THE OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
   MODEST. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN
   WITH THIS WEAK INSTABILITY...THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COUPLED
   WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR -- RECENT MPX VAD SAMPLED 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6
   KM BULK SHEAR -- AND POTENTIAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS AS CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...A LOW PROBABILITY OF A
   TORNADO OR TWO DOES EXIST GIVEN THE INCREASED SURFACE VORTICITY NEAR
   THE SURFACE LOW.

   ..MOSIER/DIAL.. 07/27/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45029477 45479413 45579258 45219138 44699084 44109156
               44419456 45029477