ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 242303 
SPC MCD 242303 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-250030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO THROUGH WCNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 242303Z - 250030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
FROM NERN MO INTO WCNTRL IL THIS EVENING. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...BUT WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON MESOSCALE AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER NERN
MO WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NRN
MO AND INTO CNTRL KS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE...AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EWD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN
MO MIGHT FOSTER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOB 35 KT WILL
SUPPORT PRIMARILY MULTICELL STORM MODES.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 07/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   39788924 39369183 40119235 40669147 40989015 39788924 

NNNN