ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 240504 
SPC MCD 240504 
MNZ000-240630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SCNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 240504Z - 240630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR MAINLY HAIL
AND LOCALLY STRONG WING GUSTS INTO THE EARLY MORNING. A WW WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE UNDERGONE A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY
WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN END OVER
CNTRL MN. THIS INCREASE APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AND MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN MANITOBA AND GLANCING NWRN MN.
HOWEVER...STORMS ARE MOVING ABOVE A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT HAS BEEN
STABILIZED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.
VWP DATA SHOW VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...BUT
HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE DUE TO PRIMARY LLJ BEING
LOCATED WELL EAST OF THIS REGION. NEVERTHELESS...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND STORMS MAY
POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 07/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

LAT...LON   44609388 44889476 45159523 46019492 46809436 46639368
            45569360 44609388 

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