MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1374
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN IA...FAR SWRN WI...FAR NWRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231908Z - 232145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY OCCUR...AND THE
   ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...AN EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM FAR SRN WI INTO NERN
   IA. THE AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY
   OWING TO AT LEAST MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE. SFC DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS COMBINED
   WITH POCKETS OF AT LEAST FILTERED INSOLATION ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE
   REACHING 3000-5000 J/KG NEAR AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH SOMEWHAT
   WEAKER BUOYANCY FARTHER N. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
   INCREASE IN NERN IA -- ON THE BACK EDGE OF A PERSISTENT
   WARM-ADVECTION-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ASCENT RELATED TO MCV/S CROSSING PARTS OF
   CNTRL/NRN IA ARE ALSO ASSISTING IN ONGOING CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN INCREASE IN
   CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   THE AFOREMENTIONED DEGREE OF BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   STRONGER TSTMS TO EVOLVE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 30-50 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SUSTAINED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE -- AIDED BY WATER-LOADING PROCESSES.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN AREAS OF CLOUDS -- LOCALLY STUNTING DESTABILIZATION
   -- AND GIVEN A TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGEST DEEP SHEAR/ASCENT TO BE
   SOMEWHAT RELEGATED TO THE COOL/CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED SIDE OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   THE COVERAGE OF SVR POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 07/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   41799236 42619226 43339172 43349080 42789021 41719043
               41359175 41799236