ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 231834 
SPC MCD 231834 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-232100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA...SRN NJ...DE...MD...DC...NRN VA...NRN/ERN
WV...EXTREME ERN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 231834Z - 232100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. WATCH ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY
NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...AT 1830Z...A GRADUALLY DEEPENING CU FIELD IS EVIDENT ON
VIS IMAGERY ACROSS ERN OH INTO WRN/CNTRL PA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT...WITH ATTEMPTS AT INITIATION NOTED NEAR AND EAST OF
PITTSBURGH. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LARGELY ABSENT ACROSS THIS
REGION...OTHER THAN PERHAPS THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A VORT MAX
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
WEAK...SO COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED STRONG HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENT FOR
25-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE LACK OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF
THE SEVERE THREAT COMPARED TO WHAT NORMALLY WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION...BUT SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE
DCAPE. WATCH ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.

..DEAN/WEISS.. 07/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON   39187957 39838048 40278104 41078092 40737966 40657849
            40527769 40307666 40097580 39947522 39517488 39187485
            38877508 38637586 38417650 38307717 38437769 38607810
            39187957 

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