ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 221634 
SPC MCD 221634 
MEZ000-221800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MAINE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 221634Z - 221800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO NRN
MAINE.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF A LOCALIZED
HAIL/WIND THREAT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW A A
SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
RIVER.  SURFACE CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAVE WARMED IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S DEG F
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO HEAT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW OVER
SERN QUEBEC MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WITH AROUND 1000
J/KG MLCAPE EXPECTED.  WEAK NEAR-SURFACE SWLY FLOW IS SURMOUNTED BY
STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE MID LEVELS--RESULTING
IN 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  AS SUCH...IT IS EXPECTED STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME STORM ORGANIZATION
IS POSSIBLE AND THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF A LOCALIZED
DAMAGING-WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE-HAIL THREAT.

..SMITH/WEISS.. 07/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   46437031 47506921 47316768 45626747 45536966 45637040
            46437031 

NNNN