ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 200251 
SPC MCD 200251 
MNZ000-200345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399...

VALID 200251Z - 200345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...RISK FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL WITHIN AND EAST OF WW 399. DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE PRIOR TO
04Z WW EXPIRATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...EARLIER LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL CONGEALED WITH DOWNSTREAM
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND HAS YIELDED A SLOW-MOVING WEST/EAST-ORIENTED
CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. LATEST RAP-PARALLEL AND NAM GUIDANCE
DEPICT WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRIMARY LLJ BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THIS
DECREASING LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ORIENTATION OF
THE CLUSTER WITH RESPECT TO THE MEAN WIND VECTOR ALONG WITH
INCREASING MLCIN SUGGESTS THAT THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD DIMINISH INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THE RISK BECOMES NEGLIGIBLE...ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND/HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS.. 07/20/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   47549646 47479583 47509521 47579454 47669407 47429348
            47069338 46609390 46559458 46699548 47279637 47549646 

NNNN