ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192217 
SPC MCD 192217 
NCZ000-VAZ000-192345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398...

VALID 192217Z - 192345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUES
ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF WATCH 398.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS VA EARLY THIS EVENING...PUSHING INTO A
WELL-HEATED/MOIST ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR WET DOWNBURSTS.
INDEED...KRIC RECORDED A 50-KT GUST AT 2109Z. WHILE OUTFLOW HAS
PUSHED SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS...IT WILL MERGE WITH A
NORTHWARD-PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST NC.
BASED ON THE PRESENT MOTION OF THESE BOUNDARIES...THIS MERGER SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...LIKELY PRECLUDING
NEW WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS NC. NEW INITIATION FROM THIS MERGER WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN A LOCALIZED UPTICK IN THE STRONG WIND /AND
PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL/ THREAT.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NC...SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW MERGERS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE INITIATION AMIDST AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. MARGINAL DEEP SHEAR MAY FAVOR WEAKLY
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS. HOWEVER...STORMS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNORGANIZED HERE.

..PICCA.. 07/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   37057949 37527866 37757671 37177619 35917575 35037626
            34047783 33947845 34417865 35977827 36507866 36667933
            36787947 37057949 

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