ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192141 
SPC MCD 192141 
MTZ000-192315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 192141Z - 192315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED ENOUGH IN SPACE AND
TIME TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...ON THE FRINGE OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WY AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MT HAVE FOSTERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED ROBUST
REFLECTIVITY CORES ON THE MRMS 9-KM CAPPI PRODUCT...SUGGESTING SOME
TRANSIENT SEVERE POTENTIAL. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 90S
AHEAD OF THESE CELLS...WHILE DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED AROUND 50 DEG.
IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THESE SFC
CONDITIONS ARE YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK...DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY CLOUD-LAYER FLOW...AS WELL AS AMPLE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING...WILL ENCOURAGE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
INDEED...KGEY IN NORTHERN WY RECORDED A 52-KT GUST AT 2013Z.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE BUOYANCY AND STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY YIELD A LARGE HAIL REPORT OR TWO. NONETHELESS...A
LACK OF GREATER LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT.

..PICCA/THOMPSON.. 07/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   45821034 46931039 48081035 48840952 48730695 47290595
            46110638 45500725 45530956 45821034 

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