ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 190404 
SPC MCD 190404 
NEZ000-190530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 190404Z - 190530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH MERGING CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

DISCUSSION...AN INITIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE
NEB PANHANDLE HAS EVOLVED INTO A WEAK BOWING STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES
TO THE ESE...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER RESULTING FROM STORM MERGERS IN
NE CO IS SURGING NEWD.  STRONG BUOYANCY IS PRESENT DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE STORMS PER THE 00Z LBF SOUNDING...BUT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS
INCREASING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.  MOST OF THE STRONG/SEVERE
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANYING THE CLUSTER SURGING NEWD FROM NE
CO.  HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST OUTFLOW SURGE FROM NE CO IS CROSSING
BEHIND THE LEADING CONVECTION AND WILL MOVE ATOP ITS COLD
POOL...THUS IT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 30-60
MINUTES.  STILL...STRONG STORM-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE MERGING GUST
FRONTS WILL AID NEW UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT EWD INTO SW NEB FOR ANOTHER
1-2 HOURS BEFORE THE LARGER CLUSTER SLOWLY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 07/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   40430026 40310071 40210166 40470200 40860194 41250173
            41670121 41780047 41669985 41369978 40919983 40430026 

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