ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180551 
SPC MCD 180551 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-180745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 180551Z - 180745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND THE
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH...CONDITIONAL ON FURTHER STORM
ORGANIZATION.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH COOLING TOPS ON IR IMAGERY. MOST
RECENTLY...DEVELOPMENT HAS INCREASED OVER SWRN LOWER MI...NEAR A
CONFLUENCE LINE AND ALSO ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INFLUENCE. THE GRR AND DTX VWPS SHOW 30-40 KT WINDS IN THE
LOWER PART OF THE TROPOSPHERE AND THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS NEWD
INTO LOWER MI. THIS SETUP MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF THE
ACTIVITY UPSTREAM CAN PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL. ANY HAIL
THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL.

..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 07/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   40758421 40798643 41348665 41908615 42588530 42888399
            42668279 42198273 41708290 41178319 40758421 

NNNN