ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180106 
SPC MCD 180106 
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-180230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...NORTHEAST MO...NORTHWEST IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 180106Z - 180230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WEST/EAST-ORIENTED CONVECTION MAY BECOME SUSTAINED ACROSS
NORTHERN IL AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHEAST MO. WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT RENDERS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DEGREE OF
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LARGE BUOYANCY AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP SHEAR
ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED IN A
WEST/EAST-ORIENTED FASHION WITHIN A MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME
ACROSS NORTHERN IL...WITH A SEPARATE STORM FARTHER SOUTHWEST OVER
NORTHEAST MO. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK WITH THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA TO SOUTHEAST NEB. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR AMID MINOR
MLCIN OF -25 TO -50 J/KG PER 00Z ILX/DVN RAOBS. LARGE MLCAPE ALONG
WITH AROUND 40-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL ORGANIZED CLUSTERING GIVEN THE WESTERLY MEAN
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE HAIL/WIND SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF THIS OCCURS.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 07/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40519224 40559198 40499142 40649095 41348983 41268777
            41208703 40998686 40658697 40358729 40228774 40129036
            40069190 40169227 40519224 

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