ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172003 
SPC MCD 172003 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-172100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS...FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 172003Z - 172100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.  A WW
FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...WITH AREAS OF TOWERING CU ALSO NOTED FARTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.  WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS IN
PLACE NEAR THIS CONVECTION...WITH A GRADUALLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DUE TO HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT /I.E. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO/. 
DEEP SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
TURNING/VEERING OF WIND WITH HEIGHT SUGGESTS THAT UPDRAFT ROTATION
MAY OCCUR IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND HIGH CLOUD BASES WILL KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT RELATIVELY
ISOLATED.  STORM COVERAGE MAY ALSO STAY ISOLATED...PRIMARILY DUE TO
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK MID-LEVEL
CAPPING IN THE REGION.  ANY STORM THAT PERSISTS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS
STORMS MOVE/PROPAGATE TOWARD STRONGER INSTABILITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS THREAT SUGGESTS THAT A WW
WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

..COOK/HART.. 07/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   38940162 38730196 38670253 38720307 38860380 39100451
            39470499 40060549 40800605 41420629 41830630 42160613
            42300547 42250456 42130370 41740270 41500226 41310210
            40170157 39220145 38940162 

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