ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171720 
SPC MCD 171720 
INZ000-ILZ000-171915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EAST-CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 171720Z - 171915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A LONG-LIVED LINE
SEGMENT...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA...HAS RECENTLY
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BOOKEND VORTEX AND
REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS JUST BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. THIS PORTION OF THE
LINE SEGMENT WAS LOCATED WITHIN A GRADIENT IN SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE
IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE...THE
STORMS WILL INCREASINGLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FLOW
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...CASTING SOME UNCERTAINTY ON BOWING SEGMENT
LONGEVITY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ISOLATED/CONFINED TO A SMALL SPATIAL CORRIDOR AND A WATCH
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..BUNTING/HART.. 07/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   38988732 39308797 39658823 39978757 40438726 40538691
            40518655 40398602 40248569 39918517 39478489 39108516
            38868587 38988732 

NNNN