ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170353 
SPC MCD 170353 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-170500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SD...FAR SOUTHEAST ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 392...

VALID 170353Z - 170500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 392
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORM CLUSTER OVER NORTH-CENTRAL SD WITH A HISTORY OF
SEVERAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

DISCUSSION...STORM CLUSTER THAT HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL SEVERE WIND
GUSTS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL SD WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST OF AN OCCLUDING
WARM SECTOR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
ACROSS NORTHEAST SD TOWARDS THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY HAS LIKELY
BEEN STABILIZED BY AN ONGOING MCS THAT IS SHIFTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MN. WHILE FORWARD MOMENTUM WILL
PROBABLY SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THROUGH ABOUT
06Z...WEAKNESSES IN THE MID-LEVEL HODOGRAPH EVIDENT IN ABR VWP DATA
ALONG WITH THE LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THIS
RISK SHOULD BE IN A DECREASING STATE.

..GRAMS.. 07/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46069980 46189854 46319688 46069659 45619655 45249657
            45129702 44999773 44949871 44959929 46069980 

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