ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 162209 
SPC MCD 162209 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-162345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL /EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390...391...

VALID 162209Z - 162345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
390...391...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALONG
WITH LARGE HAIL SHOULD DEVELOP EAST/SOUTH OF WW/S 390/391.
REPLACEMENT OF WW 390 WITH A DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED
BY 00Z.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING MULTIPLE MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST AT AROUND 35 KT
OVER NORTHEAST SD. LARGER STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING FROM SOUTHEAST
MT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL SD. AS A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ INTENSIFIES
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SIOUXLAND...ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN BETWEEN THESE CLUSTERS NEAR THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ARCING ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST SD
INTO CENTRAL IA. THIS ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME AMID 40-50 KT
MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS OF SEVERE
WIND/HAIL.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 07/16/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45790148 45980021 45679717 45589573 44889474 43669490
            43349686 43090037 43060126 43920136 45260159 45790148 

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