ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152216 
SPC MCD 152216 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-160015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND WRN KS...NW OK...OK PANHANDLE...NE TX
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388...

VALID 152216Z - 160015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ACROSS SWRN KS AND SHOULD AFFECT THE NERN TX PANHANDLE AND
NWRN OK WITHIN A FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY
DOWNSTREAM OF WW 388.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1008 MB MESOLOW OVER SERN CO
WITH UPSLOPE ELY FLOW LOCATED TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN CO AND KS EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN OK. SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F IN THE GARDEN CITY AREA JUST AHEAD
OF A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TX PANHANDLE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S F BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS WRN
AND NRN OK. THIS MAY FAVOR A MORE SEWD MOVEMENT WITH THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS AS IT MOVES ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 TO
40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE DODGE CITY WSR-88D VWP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH THE MOST DOMINANT STORMS WITHIN
THE CLUSTER. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS ESPECIALLY WITH CELL MERGERS AND BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WW ISSUANCE
MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS
THE NERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 07/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   38770122 38549975 38209868 37569806 36959782 35489821
            34799977 35100096 36070156 37430219 38300276 38870259
            38780156 38770122 

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