ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152001 
SPC MCD 152001 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-152130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NM...TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 152001Z - 152130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY HIGH-BASED STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST NM AND LIKELY SPREADING INTO PARTS OF THE
TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM THE RATON MESA TO THE
LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREADS ARE AROUND 30-50 DEG F DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY. WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS PER FDX/AMA VWP DATA AND
PROBABLE MODEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES...THE STRENGTH OF
DEEP SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO FOSTER WEAKLY ORGANIZED CLUSTERING AS
STORMS SPREAD SOUTHEAST. OVERALL SETUP MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WW POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE EVENING IF A
CONSOLIDATED COLD POOL CAN FORM AMID A STRENGTHENING LLJ.

..GRAMS/HART.. 07/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35150541 36410408 36620322 36560114 36200080 35570077
            34980098 34330161 33990239 33960358 34250467 35150541 

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