ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 151844 
SPC MCD 151844 
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-152015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS...FAR EASTERN CO...OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 151844Z - 152015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS WILL FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AND SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN KS INTO THIS EVENING. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
STORMS...LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY A SEVERE WIND RISK /POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT/.

DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE BETWEEN KLIC AND
KITR WITH A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT ARCING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KS...AND A TROUGH WEST-SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. CBS HAVE INITIALLY FORMED ALONG THE TROUGH
WITH CU CLUMPING FARTHER EAST ACROSS WESTERN KS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES SHOULD RESULT
IN SCATTERED STORMS FORMING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A VEERING WIND
PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AMID STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT
ROTATION AND RISKS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING MCS
OVER MAINLY WESTERN KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRESENCE OF LARGE BUOYANCY /CURRENTLY CENTERED ON SOUTHWEST KS/ WILL
SUPPORT A RISK FOR INTENSE WIND GUSTS.

..GRAMS/HART.. 07/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   39610272 39680200 39470120 39060050 38320001 37209968
            36969991 36780029 36660112 36860196 37940264 38910302
            39610272 

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