ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 150143 
SPC MCD 150143 
TXZ000-150345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1283
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0843 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NW AND WCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 150143Z - 150345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NW AND WCNTRL TX IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL. A COUPLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR
BUT THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE LEVEL NEEDED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB MESOLOW JUST TO THE
EAST OF LUBBOCK WITH A ARCING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED NEAR
THE SFC LOW. AHEAD OF THIS LINE...A CORRIDOR OF WARM AIR IS PRESENT
WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S F. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR ARE IN 55 TO 60 F RANGE AND ARE CREATING LARGE
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT
SPEEDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AND KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MARGINAL.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33760033 32680082 32110162 32020220 31410185 30920077
            30959934 32059832 32839821 33659896 33799970 33760033 

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