ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 150119 
SPC MCD 150119 
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-150145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0819 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...NE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384...

VALID 150119Z - 150145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS SE CO AND NE NM. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A LOCAL
EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED TO CONTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT FOR ABOUT AN
HOUR BEYOND 02Z WATCH EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR LA JUNTA SWWD TO JUST NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD
IN SOUTHEAST CO. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SERN CO. IN
ADDITION...UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SFC ALONG WITH 40 KT OF WLY FLOW AT 5
KM ON THE PUEBLO WSR-88D VWP WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN STORM
ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLY STORM ROTATION. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL POSSIBLE AS CELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO FAR SE CO.
HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD MAKE THE SEVERE THREAT MORE
MARGINAL AND ISOLATED WITH TIME.

..BROYLES.. 07/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35210417 35230528 35010527 35040572 35980573 35980555
            36230538 36610536 36740522 37100509 37600518 37620536
            37610548 37870542 37990523 37960511 37950506 38240498
            38270493 38740495 38840508 39120507 39140405 38520401
            38520351 38280351 38250341 37630339 37650309 37000308
            36980299 36500299 36490302 35760301 35740334 35400336
            35380362 35260361 35240391 35120413 35210417 

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