ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 142205 SPC MCD 142205 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-150000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1279 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 142205Z - 150000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY AFFECT SWRN OK LATER THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ISSUED OVER THE NEXT HOUR. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CANNON NM EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THESE BOUNDARIES...A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F. THIS IS RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WHERE THE RAP IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME SUPERCELL RISK ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK. AGGRAVATED CUMULUS TOWERS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SHOULD BE WHERE INITIATION TAKES PLACE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DEVELOP. THE LATEST ESRL HRRR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ESEWD FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NERN MN AND MOVES THIS CONVECTION SEWD INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE BY THE EARLY EVENING. DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE AMARILLO WSR-88D VWP...THE STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING WITH A CLUSTER EVENTUALLY AFFECTING AREAS SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY TO NEAR LAWTON. ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 07/14/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 34399890 34879801 35839851 36680094 36950230 36490304 35420308 34930256 34650132 34399890 NNNN