ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 142003 
SPC MCD 142003 
VAZ000-NCZ000-142100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 142003Z - 142100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT OF VA. THE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN TOO UNORGANIZED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE THOUGH.

DISCUSSION...IN RESPONSE TO AN MCV TRANSITING NORTHEAST AND
PERSISTENT COLD-POOL/CELL MERGERS...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON. RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ARE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 2000-2500
J/KG...FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL DOWNBURSTS. NONETHELESS...WEAK
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /EXHIBITED IN KFCX VWP DATA/ SHOULD LIMIT
THE LONGEVITY OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS...KEEPING THE THREAT LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.

..PICCA/THOMPSON.. 07/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   36668053 38177835 38257760 37737735 36777805 36567916
            36528050 36668053 

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