ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 141917 
SPC MCD 141917 
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-142045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NJ...EASTERN NY...AND WESTERN/NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383...

VALID 141917Z - 142045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG STORMS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS..WITH HIGH
WINDS REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

DISCUSSION...ON THE NOSE OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN
LINE...STRETCHING FROM NEAR BURLINGTON VT SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN NJ.
DESPITE MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...GRADUAL DIURNAL HEATING AND
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG -- THE HIGHEST OF WHICH EXIST
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHERN NJ. AS A RESULT...THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH...WITH A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT AND RELATED MCV NOTED ACROSS
MORRIS COUNTY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE FOCUSED IN THIS AREA. AS SUCH...WW 383 HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN AREA
TO COVER NYC AND SURROUNDING METRO NJ.

STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOCALIZED BACKING OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...A DOWNSTREAM WATCH MAY BE
CONSIDERED IN APPROXIMATELY 2 HOURS...IF AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE
OF STRONGER CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

..PICCA.. 07/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   44997356 44997163 43327231 40637378 40487412 40757516
            43047463 44997356 

NNNN