ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 140810 
SPC MCD 140810 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-140945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK INTO THE ARKLATEX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 140810Z - 140945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH
DIMINISHING STRONG SURFACE GUSTS AS IT APPROACHES AREAS NEAR/NORTH
OF THE ARKLATEX BY DAYBREAK.

DISCUSSION...SMALL BUT SUSTAINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WHICH
HAS BEEN PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING/HEAVY RAIN AND
OCCASIONAL/LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS THAT PAST FEW HOURS...APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN LARGELY SUPPORTED BY A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THE
LATEST RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT INDICATES SUBSTANTIVE WEAKENING OF THIS
FORCING WILL COMMENCE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT FORCING ALONG THE LEADING/SOUTHEASTWARD EDGE
OF THE COLD POOL WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME INHIBITION FOR
MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS.  AS A RESULT...AS
STORMS APPROACH THE DEQUEEN AR AREA THROUGH 09-10Z...WEAKENING
TRENDS ARE EXPECTED WITH DIMINISHING RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..KERR/GUYER.. 07/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35039511 35369470 34619388 33899382 33529413 33939529
            34779588 34829542 35039511 

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