ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120143 
SPC MCD 120143 
MNZ000-IAZ000-120315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0843 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL IA...S-CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...373...

VALID 120143Z - 120315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
372...373...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS WRN IA...AND A
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS CONTINUES. A NEW
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 03Z TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE DMGG WIND
THREAT ACROSS WRN/CNTRL IA AND S-CNTRL MN.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
ACROSS WRN IA WITHIN BROAD/WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS... AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH DMGG WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. RECENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
TSTMS CROSSING THE MO VALLEY BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE EWD...AND BOTH
OBSERVATIONAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
INTERACTIONS/MERGERS WITH NEIGHBORING STORMS TO THE N COULD RESULT
IN UPSCALE GROWTH TO A MCS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL IA. SHOULD THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE...DMGG WIND THREAT WOULD LIKELY INCREASE AND SPREAD EWD
TOWARDS THE ERN EDGE OF WATCHES 372/373...AND A NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH
FOR WRN/CNTRL IA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN MAY BE CONSIDERED CLOSE TO
EXPIRATION TIME OF 03Z.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/12/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   44049384 44079276 43769229 41999261 41319288 41029380
            41129478 41499525 41889568 42629551 43519489 43889459
            44049384 

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