ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110601 
SPC MCD 110601 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-110730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NORTH DAKOTA/NERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF
MINNESOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370...

VALID 110601Z - 110730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH EAST OF WW 370.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN
THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE ONGOING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY BEEN AROUND 45 KT.  AT THIS
PACE...INTENSE CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TO THE EAST OF WW 370 BETWEEN 07-08Z.  

EASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE RELATIVE INFLOW FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM IS EMANATING FROM A SLOWLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE
NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.  EVEN THOUGH THIS AIR MASS IS
RELATIVELY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...IT
IS SURMOUNTED BY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR THAT IS CONTRIBUTING
TO SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION AND LIMITED CAPE.  

WEAKENING TRENDS IN THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION HAVE BECOME EVIDENT
IN RECENT LIGHTNING AND MRMS CAPPI DATA.  GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT THESE GENERAL TRENDS
MAY CONTINUE...WITH DIMINISHING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 07/11/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   47479681 48209737 48469584 48059387 46599316 44959453
            44879678 45429753 46029694 46639668 47479681 

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