MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NORTH DAKOTA/NERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF
   MINNESOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370...

   VALID 110601Z - 110730Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH EAST OF WW 370.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN
   THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE ONGOING MESOSCALE
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY BEEN AROUND 45 KT.  AT THIS
   PACE...INTENSE CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
   MINNESOTA TO THE EAST OF WW 370 BETWEEN 07-08Z.  

   EASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE RELATIVE INFLOW FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE
   SYSTEM IS EMANATING FROM A SLOWLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE
   NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.  EVEN THOUGH THIS AIR MASS IS
   RELATIVELY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...IT
   IS SURMOUNTED BY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR THAT IS CONTRIBUTING
   TO SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION AND LIMITED CAPE.  

   WEAKENING TRENDS IN THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION HAVE BECOME EVIDENT
   IN RECENT LIGHTNING AND MRMS CAPPI DATA.  GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
   ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT THESE GENERAL TRENDS
   MAY CONTINUE...WITH DIMINISHING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

   ..KERR.. 07/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   47479681 48209737 48469584 48059387 46599316 44959453
               44879678 45429753 46029694 46639668 47479681