MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1240
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 110054Z - 110230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...HIGH-BASED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NWRN NEB
   PANHANDLE...AND ARE MOVING NEWD INTO A GRADUALLY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF SD. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR A POSSIBLE WW...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY
   THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITHIN AN AREA
   OF HIGH-BASED CU ACROSS THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE. THE AIR MASS
   IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THIS CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY DRY /LOW-MID
   50S F DEWPOINTS/ BUT UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   /SEE 00Z RAP SOUNDING/. RICHER MOISTURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS
   CNTRL PORTIONS OF SD...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED
   OVER 4000 J/KG AMIDST LOW-70S F DEWPOINTS. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
   NEWLY DEVELOPED TSTMS WILL SURVIVE BEFORE REACHING THE MORE
   FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
   HEATING...BUT NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD
   PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
   SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION...BUT CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE NEW WW EXTENDING INTO WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF
   SD.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45099868 43329921 43120101 43220195 44170216 45090182
               45410031 45099868