ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102233 
SPC MCD 102233 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-110000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W TX...TX/OK PANHANDLES...EXTREME ERN
NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 102233Z - 110000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. DUE TO LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF THE
THREAT...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...AT 2230Z...STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING WEST OF LBB AND NORTH OF HOB. THIS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITHIN A VERY HOT/WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT...AND ADDITIONAL CU IS
BUILDING NORTH AND WEST OF AMA. WHILE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION...CONTINUED DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NWD INTO THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES. WHILE MID-UPPER FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY ALOFT IS RESULTING IN AROUND 25-35
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STRUCTURES.
LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND DCAPE WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS...WHILE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z AS DIURNAL COOLING
COMMENCES. AT THIS TIME...THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF THE THREAT
APPEAR TOO LIMITED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

..DEAN/HART.. 07/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32820338 34130322 35650300 36520294 36960249 36950151
            36580120 34930121 34000114 33250126 32760165 32580239
            32650290 32820338 

NNNN