MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 102153Z - 102300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO
   ACCOUNT FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OVER WRN ND MOVING EWD TOWARDS
   CNTRL ND.

   DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL /PER MRMS MESH DATA/ IS APPROACHING ERN PORTIONS OF SVR
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368...ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ND. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPWARD INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THIS
   AREA...AND MERGERS/INTERACTIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS SHOULD LEAD TO
   EVOLUTION INTO A CLUSTER OR MCS ACROSS CNTRL ND. THE 19Z BIS
   SOUNDING INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL CINH REMAINS PRESENT...BUT A MODESTLY
   INCREASING LLJ THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION EWD ACROSS CNTRL
   ND...WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. A NEW
   SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED...AND WILL LIKELY BE
   ISSUED SOON.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47910213 48160009 47929848 46709799 45929843 46080205
               47910213