ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101919 
SPC MCD 101919 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-102045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN ND...FAR NW SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 101919Z - 102045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS
INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MT...WESTERN ND AND FAR NORTHWEST
SD. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR BHK...WITH ADDITIONAL AGITATED CU
DEVELOPING INTO WESTERN ND. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO WARM
THAN EXPECTED DUE TO SCATTERED CLOUDINESS...BUT ADDITIONAL HEATING
SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY 21-23Z. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO ND...LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPER /AOA 7.5 DEG C PER KM/. STORMS MAY TEND TO GROW INTO LINE
SEGMENTS/FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS...WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN GIVEN MORE CLOUDINESS THAN EXPECTED...BUT A WATCH LIKELY
WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 07/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   44880569 45090633 45430653 45770634 46240582 46740581
            47620537 48040509 48390454 48350374 48170309 47840267
            47510250 47200249 45960280 45080399 45030447 45010524
            44880569 

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