ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100848 
SPC MCD 100848 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-101015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SERN SOUTH
DAKOTA/NRN IOWA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367...

VALID 100848Z - 101015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SOME RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING STORMS CONTINUES...AND MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD
SOUTH OF WATCH 367 SHORTLY.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A NEW
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW...FROM NEAR A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED VORTEX...TO THE
NORTHWEST OF ST. CLOUD...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR BROOKINGS SD.  RECENT
RAPID REFRESH AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY MAY
ADVANCE AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER AREA BY
11-12Z... BEFORE STALLING/WEAKENING.  WITH ACTIVITY MOSTLY TO THE
COOL/DRY SIDE OF AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM FRONT...AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY
COOL...THERE IS LITTLE OBVIOUS TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  THE NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED PLAINS SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...AND MID/UPPER
SUPPORT REMAINS UNCLEAR.  HOWEVER...BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY FURTHER...IT MAY NOT YET BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH A 50+ KT REAR INFLOW JET COULD REACH THE
SURFACE WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.

..KERR.. 07/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   44059659 44419513 45049417 44649331 43719258 43039275
            42889461 42999620 43739685 44059659 

NNNN