ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100344 
SPC MCD 100344 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-100515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN ND...N-CNTRL/NERN ND...WRN/CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...

VALID 100344Z - 100515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES IN AND NEAR WW 366. POTENTIAL
FOR FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH MAY NECESSITATE WATCH ISSUANCE INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA BEFORE 05Z.

DISCUSSION...AT 0330Z...TWO LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS WW 366. ONE IS AN E/W ORIENTED BAND OF SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ THAT HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL SWATHS
OF SEVERE HAIL AND ALSO SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SEWD WHILE BACKBUILDING TO THE WEST
AND IS BEING SUSTAINED BY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH 40 KT FLOW
AT 1 KM AGL RECENTLY NOTED IN THE KABR VWP. MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. MEANWHILE...A LESS-ORGANIZED N/S-ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL ND/N-CNTRL
SD. THIS SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A REGION WHERE A
STRONGER LLJ IS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY MERGE INTO THE ERN
SYSTEM...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. 

ON THE ERN END OF WW 366...STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE
WATCH BY 05Z. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND
LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL UPSCALE GROWTH/ORGANIZATION...DOWNSTREAM
WATCH ISSUANCE INTO CNTRL MN MAY BE REQUIRED...THOUGH SOME DOWNTREND
IN INTENSITY WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS STORMS BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED. 

ADDITIONALLY...A ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM HAS DEVELOPED S OF WW 366 TO
THE NW OF PIERRE. SWD EXPANSION OF THE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO
COVER THE THREAT POSED BY THIS STORM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO FILL IN TO THE NORTH...WHICH WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL INTO NERN SD.

..DEAN/HART.. 07/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   44450106 44820104 45440052 46450036 46920029 47730011
            47689924 47479824 47399714 47449592 47489543 47399485
            47349438 46319435 45569423 45299525 45079709 44829847
            44500001 44450106 

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