ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 092227 SPC MCD 092227 MNZ000-NDZ000-100000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0527 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 092227Z - 100000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT APPEARS TOO ISOLATED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...AT 2220Z...A LONG-LIVED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS NERN ND...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SRN MANITOBA BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE STORM THAT EARLIER PASSED N OF DVL HAS EXHIBITED ELEVATED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND PRODUCED A SWATH OF SEVERE HAIL...WHILE THE OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY SUBSEVERE THUS FAR. THE ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ON THE NOSE OF A STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME. EVEN THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...MIDLEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENT FOR AROUND 35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES...WHILE SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE WITH ANY UPSCALE-GROWING CLUSTERS...THOUGH THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT TO SOME EXTENT. SOME WEAKENING IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED AS STORMS MOVE INTO A REGION OF LOWER INSTABILITY ACROSS NERN MN...THOUGH SOME BACKBUILDING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN ND AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO ISOLATED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..DEAN/HART.. 07/09/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF... LAT...LON 48979836 49049759 49029654 48979575 48499541 47639549 47239578 47319676 47439711 47679798 48099861 48649931 48989934 48979836 NNNN