ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092021 
SPC MCD 092021 
NDZ000-092145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 092021Z - 092145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL ND JUST TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE
LIKELY ELEVATED AS THEY ARE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING WILL RESULT IN FURTHER EROSION OF WEAK
CAPPING DOWNSTREAM WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAVE RESULTED WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME. 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40-55 KT WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. INITIALLY...SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN TREAT WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7
DEG C/KM NOTED IN 20Z MESOANALYSIS. AS STORMS BECOME
SURFACE-BASED...AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED.
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO A FORWARD
PROPAGATING BOW AS FURTHER CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN ND.
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EVOLUTION OF CURRENT ISOLATED CELLS
AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE THIS
AFTERNOON.

..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 07/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48990063 49059978 48899904 48119801 47449736 46609693
            46129703 45989726 45969786 46139863 46609955 47690076
            48260107 48800100 48990063 

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